Home / Do Immigrants Typically Settle in the Province of their Landing through the Provincial Nominee Program?

Do Immigrants Typically Settle in the Province of their Landing through the Provincial Nominee Program?

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The Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) is a primary avenue for skilled workers to immigrate to Canada. Operated by nearly every province and territory, the PNP aims to nominate and welcome skilled workers. Fostering settlement within their respective jurisdictions.

Crafted to enhance a fairer distribution of immigrants nationwide, the program focuses on dispersing newcomers beyond the three major Canadian cities. Simultaneously, it addresses the labor force requirements of provincial employers. A key goal is to encourage the integration and retention of newcomers within their nominating province or territory.

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Understanding Provincial Nominee Program Trends: Retention Patterns Among Immigrants in Canada

Provincially nominated immigrants must demonstrate a genuine intent to reside in Canada’s nominating province for permanent resident status. However, post-landing, there are no restrictions on their movement outside the province.

A recent study by Statistics Canada delved into the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). Specifically examining the retention of newcomers in their chosen province. Using data from the Immigrant Landing File and tax records. Along with three retention indicators, the study revealed generally high retention rates.

In 2019, 89% of provincial nominees stayed in their intended province or territory by the end of the landing year. Retention rates varied, from 69% in Prince Edward Island to 97% in Ontario. With British Columbia at 95%, Alberta at 92%, Manitoba at 88%, and Saskatchewan at 78%.

Among those who stayed, a significant proportion (in the mid-80% range) remained in the province five years later. Showing considerable variation by region, ranging from 39% to 94%.

While longer-term trends indicated a decrease in provincial retention, even after 10 years, the 1-year provincial retention rate for those who landed in 2010 was 95.8%. The 5-year rate was 88.7%, and the 10-year rate was 84.4%. Despite this decline, these figures underscore a notably high percentage. Emphasizing that most provincial nominees tend to stay in their initial province, even a decade after migration.

The Preferred Destination for Provincial Nominee Secondary Migration

Which province attracts immigrants through secondary migration? Ontario emerges as a pivotal hub, benefiting from provincial nominees who initially land in the province and those who, post-landing, choose to relocate from other regions in the country.

Ontario acts as a magnetic force for the secondary migration of provincial nominees. At the end of the first full year following the landing year, Ontario boasted a 23% increase in provincial nominees compared to the landing year. This trend accelerated over time, with Ontario exhibiting a remarkable 56% increase in nominees by the end of the fifth year following the landing year.

Interestingly, when accounting for provincial nominees leaving and entering the province, Ontario is the sole province or territory experiencing a substantial net gain from this process. It becomes evident that Ontario not only retains its initial nominees but also attracts a significant influx of provincial nominees from other regions, solidifying its status as a preferred destination for secondary migration.

Analyzing Provincial Differences: Factors Influencing Retention Rates in Canada

Which provinces boast the highest retention rates? The answer lies in many factors, including economic opportunities, provincial size, and urbanization.

Economic disparities and varying conditions across provinces inevitably influence retention rates. Larger provinces, offering more choices for immigrants within their borders, tend to exhibit higher retention rates. Notably, major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver have the highest immigrant retention rates.

Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia emerge as frontrunners with the highest Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) retention rates. In contrast, Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick report lower rates. Interestingly, the gap among provinces widens, emphasizing the enduring impact of years since immigration.

While provincial unemployment rates account for some differences, particularly in the Atlantic provinces compared to Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia, a substantial retention rate variation persists even after adjusting for a comprehensive set of control variables. The complexities of economic opportunities, provincial size, and urban dynamics continue to shape the nuanced landscape of retention rates across Canada.

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